OBBB Ensures Collapse Of Social Security & Medicare
No incoming administration will be able to shore it up with all the additional debt piled on for the Trump tax cuts
Quickly in and out of the news cycle is the fact that, without government intervention, Social Security and Medicare will run out of money in about nine years.
That’s a scary thought because, though they are called entitlements, they have historically been part of the mandatory spending part of the federal budget. Mandatory spending is just that, mandatory. Not anymore, thanks to Dear Leader. To pay for his tax cuts for him, his family, and the donor-class of our nation, his OBBB, the one House Republicans passed, Senate rejected (and possibly their version is even more cruel than the House version if signed into law), severely slashes mandatory spending. This has been analyzed by responsible journalists ad nauseam. It’s caused a huge fracture in the MAGA base.
That being stated, let’s step back to see the bigger picture of the current state of Social Security and Medicare. Welcome to my kitchen table. Have a seat; the coffee’s fresh. No smoking.
Trump and his Republican toadies in Congress (the remaining ones who idolize him) are looking to slash mandatory spending, which includes social security, healthcare, veteran benefits, and SNAP in the OBBB. The budget bill will almost assuredly fail, and Trump’s agenda will be over as he’ll only be able to rule by decree.
But that doesn’t mean that programs will simply end because of inaction. And that’s the state of Social Security and Medicare. Trump and his sycophants don’t have to do anything to end it. It will end because there will be no money left to pay benefits. Those of us who’ve worked all our lives and are still working are paying into the pool with the promise that we will see that money back in lifetime government payments to offset the costs of reduced income during retirement years
And, it appears as if that is exactly what Trump intends. Let these entitlements go broke. Payments won’t stop, but they will be reduced, and with no COLA increases. It’s downright cruel. In eight years, Medicare won’t be able to provide full benefits. In nine years, Social Security will have to reduce benefit payments by about one-fifth.
The point of no return is sooner than any of us realizes. If we expect the incoming administration, hopefully a Dem, to stabilize the programs, it will be too late. The time is now.
First Musk, and now team-Trump are trying to sell Americans on ending fraud and waste. Except that fraud and waste in mandatory spending are negligible. It would be a drop in the bucket if all waste were found and eliminated, and wouldn’t offset any of the Trump tax cuts. It certainly won’t add years to the Social Security or Medicare funding buckets - maybe a month.
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office is now warning that the Trump tax cuts and the OBBB will add $2.8T to the deficit over the next ten years. That deficit gets added to the national debt. And that makes the bond market even more skittish about the risk associated with US debt. The US is already in deficit spending. Trump will pile on so much debt that the next administration won’t have the money to shore up those programs. They will be reduced to the point of irrelevancy.
In what were once “normal times”, Congress would have come together and passed legislation to shore up the mandatory spending programs. Nothing is normal anymore. Chaos replaced normal. Trump and his donor-class friends will absolutely allow these programs to go broke so they can get their tax cuts. Moody's has already reduced the nation’s credit rating. If it’s reduced further, the federal government may not be able to borrow more money at favorable rates to fund the government.
To be fair, government overspending has been a problem for longer than Trump has been around. Historically, it’s been the Republican Party that has driven up the debt to pay for tax cuts, while Democrats have cut the deficit by being fiscally responsible and ensuring the wealthy pay more of their fair share, or to stimulate
economic growth through investment in people and infrastructure.
Not to fear-monger, but if the OBBB, or the Senate version, passes substantially unchanged, you, dear reader, will lose out on promised benefits. Benefits we paid for with our payroll deductions.
The time is now. The OBBB must fail. Anything even remotely resembling the OBBB must fail. The USA cannot afford the Trump tax cuts. It’d be so much better if the wealthy actually paid their fair share. It would go a long way to plugging the hole in the deficit.
The time is now. I don’t know about you, but I can’t imagine how life will change in the USA if these programs are no longer relevant. I do know that if it comes to pass and the OBBB or some form of it becomes law, life in the USA will get much harder, and life expectancy will plunge.
That’s my take. You’re welcome.
Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.
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